Super interesting James. Hard to escape feeling we are heady for an almighty smash as multiple waves start cresting in Britain across demographics, society, and the economy. An interesting additional wrinkle on your piece is that - amongst a sub set of white collar professions - there is a lot of hostility to AI, correlated with political identification (anti-Trump, anti-Silicon Valley tech). I think we might see quite active lobbying against some of the AI rollout in some fields (particularly the public sector but you can also see some of this in the creative/media industry). This might create winners and losers and feed into other narratives about resentment.
Really interesting. Middle class families have advantages getting their kids into Uni for largely academic courses that may now prove a career dead-end. If the best route shifts towards vocational training, will they still retain an advantage in getting their kids into such courses, displacing kids from more typically blue-collar families?
Nando that is a great question. Would imply a completely different way though of child-rearing. I think though this happened in the US in the 1960s/1970s though with the expansion of higher education
Interesting position piece but have you got this the wrong way round? High vulnerability to AI could also be read as high productivity potential. Late 19th Century factory workers operating of machinery were poorly paid, but they were markedly better off than the hand-to-mouth penury of a farm labourer or cottage-side piece worker.
So it is here. Where previously a lawyer or accountant might be require a long process of research, review, and repetition to excel in an activity, now their role becomes one of defining the objective, drafting the heads of terms, and standing back. Five people at £100,000 a year become one at £150,000.
Clearly, just as with the Industrial Revolution, the majority of the surplus of production will reside with the possessors of capital. But for those who remain lawyering or accounting, their job becomes better - and better paid.
Nice piece, I'm writing on the topic soon. Due to mass amount of CAPEX and potential >20% profit increases, I expect a new AI-powered middle class. Their behaviour, as they seek to build their capital and have better lives, will put political pressure on health services and housing as demand grows. Logical conclusion, as it stands: gated communities, further sprawl of London. Can MCR build-out in the UK?
Great analysis, agreed with much. Though I think one aspect that will "protect" a majority of the white collar professional class is the family wealth and inheritance built up by Boomer parents in the previous cycle ... it's probably a less precarious threat than that faced by Blue collar workers in the 70s and 80s
Super interesting James. Hard to escape feeling we are heady for an almighty smash as multiple waves start cresting in Britain across demographics, society, and the economy. An interesting additional wrinkle on your piece is that - amongst a sub set of white collar professions - there is a lot of hostility to AI, correlated with political identification (anti-Trump, anti-Silicon Valley tech). I think we might see quite active lobbying against some of the AI rollout in some fields (particularly the public sector but you can also see some of this in the creative/media industry). This might create winners and losers and feed into other narratives about resentment.
My friend Ed Newton-Rex has suggested something very similar - with explictly anti AI parties pitching...
Really interesting. Middle class families have advantages getting their kids into Uni for largely academic courses that may now prove a career dead-end. If the best route shifts towards vocational training, will they still retain an advantage in getting their kids into such courses, displacing kids from more typically blue-collar families?
Nando that is a great question. Would imply a completely different way though of child-rearing. I think though this happened in the US in the 1960s/1970s though with the expansion of higher education
Amazing article, feels like our political parties and narrative are miles behind this.
Appreciated
Interesting position piece but have you got this the wrong way round? High vulnerability to AI could also be read as high productivity potential. Late 19th Century factory workers operating of machinery were poorly paid, but they were markedly better off than the hand-to-mouth penury of a farm labourer or cottage-side piece worker.
So it is here. Where previously a lawyer or accountant might be require a long process of research, review, and repetition to excel in an activity, now their role becomes one of defining the objective, drafting the heads of terms, and standing back. Five people at £100,000 a year become one at £150,000.
Clearly, just as with the Industrial Revolution, the majority of the surplus of production will reside with the possessors of capital. But for those who remain lawyering or accounting, their job becomes better - and better paid.
The 'Footing the Bill' graph needs a comparable with the Y-axis instead of population being total income per decile.
Nice piece, I'm writing on the topic soon. Due to mass amount of CAPEX and potential >20% profit increases, I expect a new AI-powered middle class. Their behaviour, as they seek to build their capital and have better lives, will put political pressure on health services and housing as demand grows. Logical conclusion, as it stands: gated communities, further sprawl of London. Can MCR build-out in the UK?
I can definitely see an "augmented" segment winning out. But those gains might be time limited? Hard to know precisely at this point
Great analysis, agreed with much. Though I think one aspect that will "protect" a majority of the white collar professional class is the family wealth and inheritance built up by Boomer parents in the previous cycle ... it's probably a less precarious threat than that faced by Blue collar workers in the 70s and 80s
yes really good points Alexander. I'm going write more about the wealth, income, education, interaction soon which might cover this